OTTAWA — For decades, the aging CF-18 Hornet has been the lone sentinel of the Canadian skies, but as airframes fatigue and radar signatures grow obsolete, the Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) has reached a critical crossroads. What was once a settled $19-billion plan to buy 88 Lockheed Martin F-35s has re-ignited into a multi-billion-dollar saga that is as much a political minefield as a military procurement. As of February 2026, the government remains locked in a high-stakes review, caught between the promise of American stealth and a newly aggressive “sovereignty” pitch from Sweden’s Saab.
The F-35 Lightning II remains the military’s clear technical favorite. A fifth-generation stealth fighter, it is designed to vanish from enemy radar and act as a digital hub for NATO allies. In a 2021 evaluation, the F-35 reportedly dominated the competition, scoring 95 percent on mission capability compared to the Saab Gripen’s 33 percent. For the RCAF, the F-35 isn’t just a jet; it is a “Day Zero” platform capable of surviving in high-threat environments that would be suicide for older designs.
However, the political landscape in Ottawa has shifted. Under Prime Minister Mark Carney, the government is re-evaluating the final 72 aircraft of the 88-jet order. While the first 16 F-35s are already in production—with a ceremonial “signing” of the first Canadian jet occurring in Texas just last week—rising trade tensions with Washington have emboldened critics. The NDP and some Liberal insiders are now questioning whether Canada should hitch its entire air defense strategy to a U.S. supply chain that could be weaponized by future American administrations.
Enter the Saab Gripen E, the “smart” disruptor. Saab has recently sweetened its offer, promising a “Made-in-Canada” production hub that would create over 12,000 domestic jobs and grant Canada full sovereign control over the jet’s software. Unlike the F-35, which requires specialized U.S.-managed infrastructure, the Gripen was built for the rugged North. It can be serviced on icy highways by small teams, making it a compelling candidate for Arctic sovereignty patrols where maintenance costs for the F-35 are expected to skyrocket.
The debate has now birthed the “mixed-fleet” proposal: a strategy where Canada would keep its initial 16 F-35s for elite NATO missions but fill the rest of the order with Gripens for domestic defense. Proponents argue this secures both high-end capability and industrial independence. Critics, however, warn that maintaining two separate supply chains would “institutionalize weakness,” doubling training costs and complicating the logistics of a military already struggling with personnel shortages.
U.S. officials have not remained silent. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra recently warned that moving away from a full F-35 fleet could “alter” the NORAD partnership, suggesting the U.S. might be forced to increase its own presence to patrol gaps in Canadian airspace. This has left Ottawa in a delicate balancing act: choosing between the world’s most advanced fighter and a Swedish underdog that offers a path toward strategic autonomy.
As the first Canadian F-35 prepares for delivery later this year, the clock is ticking. The decision will define Canada’s role on the global stage for the next half-century. It is a choice between the high-tech certainty of a global stealth program, and the sovereign appeal of a jet designed specifically for the frozen frontiers of the North.
